Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
